Now that the war in the Persian Gulf has been going on for more than a month, the effect on fuel prices is evident: On average, they are up almost a dollar per gallon, or 25 percent, according to AAA. For a nation as addicted to cars as we are, that’s bad news. Except, of course, electric vehicles.
The past half-year has been a difficult one for EV adoption here in the U.S. Late last September, the Trump administration abolished the federal tax credit for new and used EVs, one of a series of policies that have discouraged automakers from making EVs and consumers from buying them. Battery factories have been shut down or reusedand electric vehicle lineups have been cut as OEM write down billions of dollars in the process.
Some analysts have predicted a particularly bleak first quarter of 2026. Cox Automotive, for example, forecast a 6.5 percent overall decline in new car sales during the first three months of the year, but a 28 percent decline in electric vehicle sales during the same period. Without sustained high fuel prices, Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox, expects people will take fewer trips. “To materially change purchasing behavior and drive a trend toward smaller, more efficient vehicles, consumers would have to believe that gasoline prices will remain high for years, not just months.” cox said.
