Xbox, and Microsoft in general, really remind me of this old webcomic called Persistence, shown above. It shows two guys mining, while one gives up just before finding diamonds.
I feel like this mentality has long been Microsoft’s bane, and their inability to see things has led them to miss the boat on various computing paradigms and other types of opportunities.
We’re seeing it again now with Xbox. New leadership has arrived, with a mandate from Microsoft’s top brass to “make Xbox sustainable,” whatever that means. This despite Xbox posting record profits last year. But decisions like this are made based on future projections, rather than past victories.
Xbox has a variety of headwinds to contend with, as does the entire gaming industry. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has suggested that Microsoft’s gaming division will end the year with “just” 3% margin of responsibility. Most of the blame falls on the unfortunate. Xbox Game Pass price increase (now reversed), the memory availability crisis and a soft year for both Obligations and Candy Crush Saga. But all of these things will diminish over time.
Microsoft’s instinct has long been to cut and run at the wrong time. In my opinion, the same mistake is being made now too.
Some of the Xbox teams simply haven’t achieved the profitability that Microsoft wants, but that’s not all.
Rumors suggest that studios like Double Fine, Compulsion Games, and Ninja Theory are being explored for closure right now, and it’s very likely that there are others on the block.
Nothing is set in stone still, but these conversations are happening. CEO Asha Sharma is going through the books and seeing how much has been spent on certain studies and what their returns have been. It’s true that none of these studios have released a successful game since joining Microsoft, in terms of retail sales or Xbox Game Pass participation. One could also argue that they weren’t exactly positioned for massive success stories either.
Ninja Theory, in particular, is a frustrating case. The UK had a particularly aggressive Covid lockdown regime, which Ninja Theory can hardly be blamed for. They also spent a great deal of time moving studio locations. Ninja Theory is also based in Cambridge, one of the most expensive regions in the UK.
Hellblade won awards for its character performances, its technology, its atmosphere, and its depiction of mental health issues. But I’d say it was Microsoft’s leadership’s fault for not identifying the hard truth: interactive walking simulation games just aren’t big sellers. It is particularly true when Hellblade is at least superficially similar in presentation to sonyIt is God of War, although without the depth of gameplay to complement it.
I don’t have a deep understanding of how Hellblade 2 got the green light in this genre, but the solution to its poor sales was obvious to me and anyone watching: it should have been an action-adventure title, meeting the demand of the market where it is. We’ve seen a variety of superficially similar hack n’ slash games that completely explode on comparatively smaller budgets. Stellar Blade comes to mind, and Lies of P also comes to mind.
We will finally have Hellblade in the genre it was always intended for Senua, which Microsoft announced at its own Xbox Showcase just a few days agoonly for reports to emerge that Xbox isn’t even going to complete it.
As a fan and customer who is tired of Microsoft “advertise first, then cancel” approach to games that people have been waiting for years in some cases… this is an absolutely horrible pill to swallow. Again. But it is much worse to know the human cost of these cancellations. Ninja Theory has never been given the clue to fully spread its wings.
Covid was not Ninja Theory’s fault. And someone, somewhere along the chain, should have identified that Hellblade 2 was not going to be a great game in the genre or the budget that charged it. Someone, somewhere along the chain, should have invested in it becoming something more.
Studios eventually have to sell games, but how can they do that if Microsoft keeps thinking about things on a quarterly basis?
There have been a variety of projects greenlit at Xbox Game Studios that they must have known would never sell or get any kind of involvement in Xbox Game Pass. Double Fine’s Keeper, for example, is a fantastic and fun art project, but in an age where incessant, incessant neon lights engage our attention-deficient brains from every angle, how can these types of projects cut through the noise?
Microsoft’s pressure on Xbox to deliver “results now” betrays the reality of modern game development. Games must be turbo-unique cultural phenomena or absolute AAA hits. South of Midnight, Kiln, Keeper, Hellblade 2 and even Avowed and The outer worlds 2 didn’t have the scope, polish, edge, or marketing budget to compete with very similar titles that do it better or simply get more attention.
The studios and teams behind the games ultimately work with what they’re given. Those who have been around long enough remember the anemic Terry Myerson era of Xbox, where products shipped barely met AA quality standards. What would Avowed or The Outer Worlds 2 have been like with a more dynamic world or a reactive engine? What would Hellblade be like if it were a linear action adventure instead of a walking simulation? Do smaller projects like Keeper and Kiln take away from development time on a more ambitious project? What if South of Midnight had better combat and a broader scope?
I wish we lived in a world where important, artistic games like Keeper and Hellblade 2 could thrive. Xbox Game Pass funds were supposed to be that. But we don’t live in that universe and we probably never will. I would say that it is up to Xbox Game Studios to guide and invest in the creativity of their teams, directing them towards the kind of quality standards that know Xbox is capable of doing it. We’ve seen it emerge with Gears of War: E-Day, Clockwork Revolution, State of Decay 3, FableGrounded 2, Sea of Thieves, Forza, etc.
The talent is clearly there. I know Microsoft isn’t going to listen to me or any of us, but I’d love to see what would happen if these studios were given the opportunity to have a longer track. Recognize that previous management errors were not your fault, and things like Covid surely represent mitigating factors.
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Oh. executive director Nadella Satya betrayed his position in a recent interview where he regretted the fact “There is more monetization of Xbox games on YouTube than on Microsoft…” I would say it is a privilege that so many millions of people want to talk, watch and share content based on those worlds. Maybe there would be more video monetization at Microsoft if it hadn’t abandoned the growth of Mixer… but I digress.
Nadella learns the wrong lesson from the popularity of gaming on YouTube. The value and interest are obviously there. It’s Microsoft’s fault for not unlocking that value properly, and developers shouldn’t be punished for it.
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