When I wrote this article on May 20, 2016, the idea that Android apps running inside Chrome could become a real threat to Microsoft seemed like an early warning sign: a sign that Google was experimenting with ways to attract Windows users to its ecosystem without needing Windows at all.
A decade later, Googlebooks takes that same core idea and brings it into the agent era.– Android PC with a built-in assistant layer that can act, automate and mediate the entire computing experience.
Looking back, the 2016 article reads less like a prediction and more like the first chapter of a story that Google is finally ready to end, while Microsoft is still defining what Windows should become in response. — Daniel Rubino, editor in chief
This article was originally published in May 20, 2016by Daniel Rubino.
Google will hold its big I/O conference this week. Like Microsoft’s Build, Google uses the event to talk about the future of its diverse (and increasingly divergent) product lines (See Google I/O 2016 Day 2: Everything you need to know).
Perhaps the most important announcement that may affect Microsoft is the imminent possibility of users running Android applications on Chrome OS. Considering there are over a million Android apps available, it’s a huge windfall for a cloud OS like Chrome, which until now didn’t have any applications.
We’ve talked about convergence in computing before and Google is approaching it from the other end compared to Microsoft. So does Microsoft now have something to worry about? Yes, I do.
The rise of Chrome OS… in schools
Tech enthusiasts and consumers have mostly ignored Google’s Chrome OS, but that’s slowly changing. More importantly, the biggest area where Google is finding success with Chrome OS is in schools.
The reason for the increase is precisely because the operating system cannot install applications and IT departments can easily lock and secure Chromebooks, especially compared to Windows. Sure, Windows can do a lot more, but Chromebooks offer school districts an affordable and efficient way to meet basic computing needs on a limited budget. In the United States, where school districts are already under tremendous pressure from an infrastructure-disinterested electorate, it’s hard to ignore Chrome OS.
To put all of this in perspective, more Chromebooks were sold in the first quarter of 2016 than all of Apple’s OS Xs, at least according to IDC. A firm figure would be close to 2 million units sold. This is the first time something like this has happened and it is no longer possible to ignore Chrome OS.
Chromebooks outsold Macs last quarter for the first time
The long-term story is more dangerous for Microsoft. By reaching so many kids early with Chrome OS and connecting them to Google services, or at least familiarizing them with the technology, Google is slowly cornering a new generation of converts.
Many people use Windows today because it’s what they’ve always used. Most of the time, your first computer was a Windows device, but now that’s changing with the decline in PC sales and the slow rise of Chromebooks. And let’s face it, Microsoft has lost the youth smartphone market, which is the only area of computing that’s doing well these days.
Android apps on Chrome OS
Google announced that later in 2016 people will be able to run full Android apps on their Chromebooks (specifically, these). It will all be done by adding the Google Play Store to those devices, although schools can choose not to allow that to happen, keeping that market safe for now. Ars Technique does a very good job of explaining as Google achieved this feat and it’s worth reading.
The main takeaway is that developers won’t have to do much to install their apps on Chrome OS. Those apps run through containers and offer floating window and split view app sizes instead of any awkward stretching. More developer tools are coming to Android N this summer.
Considering that there are now 1.5 million Android apps available, including a wide range of popular games like clash of clans and Google has pulled off a novel trick without big changes for developers.
The “Not a Laptop” Laptop Problem
While all this Android and Chrome OS stuff is impressive, there are still some perception issues that Google faces. Ironically, Google has the same problem as Microsoft with Continuum, but from the other end.
For example, the beautiful new $600 HP Chromebook 13 looks like a full PC, feels like a full PC, but it’s not a real PC. Just like Microsoft’s Continuum looks like full Windows 10, but it also can’t run “classic” Win32 apps. (However, virtualization may be the solution for both platforms.)
For some people, this won’t be a problem. Modern mobile computing is moving towards the app model, which even Microsoft is emulating with its Universal Windows Platform (UWP). However, a two-in-one Windows 10 PC or even a low-cost PC can still run Photoshop, full Office, any web browser you want, iTunes, or any app your company wants you to use. Plus, you now have Windows Ink, which is contributing to the resurgence of the smart pen.
Chromebooks can’t and won’t do any of that. There is also the lack of security for companies. So the question is Do people still want that ability to run full, classic desktop applications? If so, spending $400 or more on a Chromebook will be a problem. It’s a great device until you need more, and if you need more, will you take it with you? two devices?
Do people still want that ability to run full, classic desktop applications?
On the other hand, if people can just use a Chromebook with Android apps, then you can’t really fault Microsoft and Continuum’s UWP initiative. However, the only hole in that argument is a big one. Google has 1.5 million Android apps and Microsoft, well, doesn’t. At least not yet.
In some ways, Google was smarter here. It is easier to move from a mobile environment to devices with larger screens than it is to adopt a legacy operating system and adapt it to mobile. Fortunately for Microsoft, they’ve already done the heavy lifting and Windows 10 and OneCore are basically ready. Google (and Apple) at some point will need to rectify his multiple operating systems such as Microsoft.
Convergence is real but problematic
Google’s move with Android on Chrome OS is momentous, but the company faces market limitations similar to Microsoft’s. Consumer interest is changing and people want portable computing anywhere, anytime, with one device and one experience.
Microsoft is attacking the problem from desktop to mobile as Google moves from mobile to desktop. No solution is perfect, as both companies face significant obstacles to achieving this. Microsoft has almost no mobile market share and Google’s Chromebooks are just starting to be taken seriously. Google benefits from 1.5 million Android apps, but Microsoft offers the power of full Windows and real desktop apps. Additionally, long-term UWP is attractive to developers, especially when Xamarin and Bridges are included.
It’s hard to say which system will win at this point.
Google has the upper hand on market momentum, declining Windows PC sales, rising ARM, and 84 percent of the mobile operating system market. Not to mention its ability to shape the next generation of kids with Chromebooks in schools.
But can Google convert everyday consumers and businesses to Chromebooks and make them give up? real computing? I’m not entirely sure, but I do know that Microsoft should be worried. Windows 10 is a major paradigm shift and can run everywhere (desktops, laptops, tablets, phones, HoloLens, Xbox, IoT), but they’re up against a company that’s playing forever, and this latest move by Google could undermine what Microsoft is trying to achieve.
Friends, we are in the midst of the next paradigm shift in technology and things are going to get very interesting in the next two years. It will be interesting to watch how Google, Apple, and Microsoft navigate this period and meet consumer demands. (As a side note, my colleague from LaptopMark Spoonauer, came to a similar conclusion).
Who do you think has the advantage? Let us know in the comments what you think about the future of computing and which company will do it well.
