New Bill Aims to Ban Market Betting on Nuclear Weapons and Oscars Predictions

Making a small fortune betting on the ouster of world leaders or the timing of global conflicts may not be legal in the United States for much longer.

US lawmakers introduced a new bill this week that would ban several types of bets on prediction market platforms, including bets on “government actions, terrorism, war, murder, and events in which an individual knows or controls the outcome,” according to a report. Press release.

He billcalled the Ban Event Trading in Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, it was introduced Tuesday by Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar in both chambers of Congress.

The proposal comes as prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket face increasing scrutiny following high-profile cases of users making huge profits on suspiciously timed trades linked to global conflicts. These include bets related to the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the US and Israeli attacks against Iran. Polymarket has even removed markets that previously allowed users to bet on the probability of a nuclear weapon being detonated before a certain date, following online reaction.

“What we have discovered is that in this administration, there are clearly individuals in the White House who are making money whether the United States goes to war or not,” Senator Murphy said in a report. video posted in

Beyond banning bets that could give government officials financial incentives to push for certain outcomes, the bill also targets betting on events where insiders can know or control the outcome in advance. That could include bets on who will perform at the Super Bowl halftime show, the Oscar winners and even the winners of reality shows like Survivor.

“This bill will stop the transformation of our society into a rigged video game casino by banning prediction markets that allow the powerful to get rich by commodifying every aspect of our lives,” Murphy said in a news release.

The bill pursues one of the main attractions of prediction markets. While both Kalshi and Polymarket prohibit insider trading, they also promote the idea that “experts”They can use their knowledge to make more informed bets and in turn improve market accuracy.

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have been around since 2018, but they have gained traction in recent years, especially after correctly forecasting major events like the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 New York City mayoral race. predicted approximately 80% of the winners at last weekend’s Oscars.

The bill also comes as Kalshi faces criminal charges from the Arizona attorney general for alleged illegal gambling and election betting.

Kalshi declined to comment on the bill, while Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.