All eyes are on the Pacific Ocean as Exceptionally strong El Niño takes shape, but meanwhile, something unusual is brewing in the Atlantic.
According Severe weather in EuropeA rare Atlantic Niña is emerging in the tropics, not to be confused with La Niña, the cold phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Like La Niña, this phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures fall below average, but affects the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean rather than the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. If Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) below average for at least two overlapping seasons, this anomaly will become the sixth Atlantic Girl in the last 40 years.
The emergence of an Atlantic Nina and its opposite “super” El Niño are clearly visible in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest sea surface temperature anomaly map, shown below. El Niño appears as a long stretch of warmer-than-average temperatures extending from the northeast coast of South America, while the Atlantic La Niña is the smaller region of cooler-than-average temperatures off the southeast coast of Africa.
“These two anomalies appear to operate at opposite poles (warm versus cold), but are actually perfectly aligned in their atmospheric impact,” writes senior meteorologist and long-range forecaster Andrej Flis for Severe Weather Europe. Here’s what that means for the climate in the United States.
Major Atlantic Hurricane Suppression
El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, making it difficult for thunderstorms to become hurricanes, according to NOAA. The agency’s perspectives for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season reflects the influence of El Niño, predicting Below normal activity with only eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.
La Niña Atlantica has a similar effect, but through different mechanisms. Colder waters in the eastern equatorial Atlantic deprive storms of the heat and moisture needed to fuel convection, suppressing storm formation and organization. During the Atlantic Niña, the number of tropical cyclones is 50% lower than during a warm phase, or Atlantic Niño, according to Severe Weather Europe. This also applies to hurricanes that make landfall in the United States.
In an average year, two named storms shape in the Atlantic basin before July 17, but so far there has only been one. Tropical Storm Arthur caused flash flooding and tornadoes in the South in June, causing significant damage, but it was disorganized and short-lived. We have yet to see a hurricane form, but on average, the first one develops before August 11.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently listen two disturbances in the Atlantic with slight possibilities of cyclone formation in the next seven days. One located on the southeastern coast of the United States, stretching from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to northern Florida and off the coast of the Carolinas, has a 20% chance of developing. The other, located much further away in the eastern tropical Atlantic, has a 10% chance.
Meanwhile, the Pacific basin is abuzz with activity. This is typical of an El Niño year, as warmer sea surface temperatures provide excess fuel (heat) for storm formation and reduce wind shear, making it easier for hurricanes to form. Tropical Storm Elida, the fifth named storm in the Pacific this year, is currently moving west away from land, according to the CNH.
Fortunately for the people of the Atlantic coast, both the Atlantic El Niño and La Niña will work together to protect them from the storms that will make landfall this season. It will be interesting to see if any tropical storms manage to overcome these conditions as we approach August, which is when Atlantic hurricane activity typically increases.
