The hantavirus outbreak aboard the MV Honda It has become one of the most watched events so far this year, and with good reason. That being said, the more we learn about this outbreak and the virus behind it, the less worried I feel.
As of Friday morning, there have been eight suspected or confirmed hantavirus cases linked to the cruise ship, along with three related deaths. And while there is a real possibility of more cases, there is also growing evidence that we are not dealing with something unprecedented. So, while it remains important to ensure the security of the Honda passengers and others who came into contact with them, I agree with the World Health Organization’s assessment that this outbreak poses a low risk to everyone else. Let me explain why.
A known culprit
The first case of outbreakA man living in Holland fell ill on April 6 and died four days later. His close contact, a Dutch woman, started feeling unwell about two weeks later. He left the cruise ship on April 24 and arrived at the island of Saint Helena in the South Atlantic Ocean. He died two days later, but not before boarding a flight to Johannesburg, South Africa, and attempting to take another flight to the Netherlands (staff on the second flight asked him to leave; he then collapsed at the airport).
The WHO first notified the public about the outbreak last weekend, and health officials in numerous countries have been working to understand and contain the spread of the disease if necessary. On Wednesday, South African officials confirmed the culprit: the Andean variant of the virus.
Hantaviruses are usually transmitted through contact with infected rodents or their droppings. But the Andes virus is the only hantavirus species currently believed to be capable of spreading through close contact between people. Therefore, this outbreak is not being caused by a previously undiscovered hantavirus.
Yesterday the scientists also revealed the genetic structure of the outbreak strain, finding that it was very similar to current Andean strains found in South America. This discovery is especially important as it likely means that the virus has not evolved to become more virulent or spread more easily from person to person.
there has been previous outbreaks of the Andes linked to the so-called “superspreaders”. However, these outbreaks appear to require specific circumstances, such as infected cases with high viral loads and/or crowded environments where people are closely confined with the infected. A cruise on a month-long trip, like the Honda era, seems to fit that criterion.
In other words, as strange as this outbreak is, everything we’ve seen so far is within the known parameters of this virus. And while Andes routinely cause human illness and death in areas where they are endemic, these groups tend to become extinct quickly. Most Andean cases also remain linked to exposure to rodents, not humans.
It is still important to follow up
None of this is to say that we shouldn’t worry about this outbreak.
After the medical evacuation of three people suspected of suffering from the disease, there are still more than 100 passengers and crew on board the Hondio. The ship is expected to dock over the weekend in the Canary Islands, despite protest in progress of the local government.
There is still a possibility that the Dutch woman may have infected people who were outside the ship, especially people who were sharing her flights. dozens of people It also departed the cruise and arrived in Saint Helena at the same time as the Dutch woman, leaving open the possibility of further transmission.
At least there is some good news. A Dutch flight attendant who showed possible signs of infection is now confirmed having tested negative. But there are other people who were on these flights who are still being monitored and waiting for their test results. And other important questions remain, such as where the original source of the outbreak began (one theory is that the man was infected during a bird watching trip in Argentina).
This situation also clearly illustrates the reality that zoonotic diseases (that is, diseases that are transmitted from animals to humans) like hantavirus are an ongoing risk to human health, one that we must be vigilant about and track as much as possible. And while it may not be this virus that is on this cruise ship, there will undoubtedly be a next major epidemic or even pandemic in the future, probably within many of our lives. Unfortunately, at this point, the United States is doing almost nothing to police these future threatswhich includes labor closely with the countries and health organizations that are.
