Taiwan will most likely face pressure to move a certain amount of its semiconductor business elsewhere, but the “magic number” that would make it sustainable in the face of a Chinese military threat cannot yet be predicted, Schiffer said.
Don’t expect a big victory for Trump
Experts agree that the United States and China will likely extend the temporary trade truce established during Trump’s last meeting with Xi, as both sides would benefit from that stability. But it’s still unclear how much Trump might be willing to trade as China uses its influence to push its biggest orders. They will likely include changing the US position on Taiwan, easing export restrictions to give China access to more cutting-edge technology and possibly removing Chinese companies from US sanctions lists.
In particular, Trump no longer has emergency rates either Even your global tariffs to intimidate China, so that Xi can get more out of the deal than Trump would like.
However, China does not even need to achieve any of its biggest demands to emerge as a winner at the summit, Kennedy said. “As long as there is no blowup at the meeting and President Trump does not leave and seek further escalation, China will basically come out stronger,” Kennedy said.
The best outcome for Trump might be to leave Beijing with “some pomp and pageantry, but nothing substantial that would harm the United States or our allies and partners,” Schiffer told Ars.
“This may be kind of a lowering of expectations, but I would consider it a win at this point,” Schiffer said.
At the very least, Trump needs to secure symbolic victories from Beijing, experts agreed, if he wants Republicans to have something to campaign on before the midterm elections.
But if you’re truly invested in American dominance in AI, you really can’t afford to be myopic at the top, especially after you’ve done “Massive” cuts to US scientific research and fundingthat led China will begin recruiting top American scientists last year, Kennedy suggested.
“That’s really where the competition will be won or lost,” Kennedy said.
