Haiyan Jiang, a meteorologist at Florida International University, said there was a high probability of a strong El Niño that could increase water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
“We probably won’t have as many storms as previous years. However, some storms are lucky,” he said. “We see outliers all the time, especially with hurricanes. So I think we Floridians need to prepare.”
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names of 2026
| Arthur | Hannah | Omar |
| Bertha | Isaiah | paulette |
| Christopher | Josephine | Rene |
| Dolly | kyle | Exit |
| Edward | Read | Teddy bear |
| Put | frame | vicky |
| gonzalo | lullaby | Wilfred |
The NWS forecast was for general seasonal activity and did not include predictions for when or where hurricanes might make landfall, since that is determined by short-lived weather patterns, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service. NOAA said there was a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
Meteorologists at Colorado State University also predicted a below-average season, with 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Forecasters said waters in the western tropical Atlantic were warmer than normal, but those in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic were slightly colder than normal. They said a warmer Atlantic also tends to lead to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, which can boost hurricane activity.
Colorado state forecasters said the chance of a hurricane making landfall was 32 percent for the entire U.S. coast, 15 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula, and 20 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida peninsula to Brownsville, Texas.
Alessi noted that although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States last year, Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica as a Category 5 storm. Melissa caused nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 deaths across the Caribbean.
“Just because it’s a below-average season doesn’t mean a very powerful hurricane won’t make landfall in the United States,” he said.
This article originally appeared in Insider climate newsa nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization covering climate, energy and the environment. Subscribe to their newsletter here.
