Downloads have fallen from 20 million in January to 8.3 million in April, paid conversion is one-fifth that of ChatGPT, the $0.42 per agency GSA deal is now stalled, and SpaceX has leased the Memphis Colossus 1 cluster to Anthropic for $1.25 billion a month.
SpaceX’s S-1 filed Tuesday is based on an AI revenue line that Grok obviously no longer delivers.
Grok does not sell in Washington and on Thursday became a problem on Wall Street. Reuters reported that Elon Musk’s xAI chatbot has failed to convert its September 2025 GSA OneGov deal into the kind of federal agency adoption that competitors OpenAI and Anthropic are now pursuing.
Just three days after SpaceX filed an S-1 prospectus in which the company’s AI revenue line is positioned as the growth engine supporting what would be the largest initial public offering in history.
The figures on the consumer side are even clearer. Grok downloads fell to about 8.3 million in April from a January high of more than 20 million.
Paid conversion, according to a Reuters report, stands at about 0.174% of US consumers and workers surveyed in the second quarter of 2026, compared to more than 6% who pay for ChatGPT.
The growth curve that fueled Grok’s contribution to the 2025 IPO narrative has reversed over the past four months.
The GSA OneGov agreement that Musk signed in September is the part that Washington observers have been following most closely. The 18-month agreement of $0.42 per organization, announced by GSA at the end of September 2025was designed to deliver Grok 4 and Grok 4 Fast to all federal agencies at a nominal price.
Public Citizen has twice asked the OMB to suspend federal use of Grok over accuracy and bias concerns, citing past results that the group describes as racist, anti-Semitic and factually incorrect.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has separately pressed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about the Defense Department granting Grok access to the classified system despite concerns from the NSA and GSA.
The trading on the computer side is the part that gives the story its trading acumen. SpaceX has leased the Memphis Colossus 1 data center, the 220,000 Nvidia GPU, 300-megawatt facility that was Grok’s main training environment, to Anthropic for $1.25 billion a month through May 2029.
The implication is mechanically simple: With consumer demand for Grok falling, xAI has more computing than it needs, and selling that capacity to Anthropic, the lab whose Mythos model has been displacing Grok on federal agencies’ procurement lists, is the cleanest way to monetize the shortfall ahead of SpaceX’s IPO prices.
The financial picture within the SpaceX S-1 makes the exchange necessary. xAI will lose $6.4 billion in operations on $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025, with revenue growth around 22%, well below the rates published on OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind.
The structural complication is that the deal with Anthropic is for xAI to sell the computer on which Grok was originally trained to its own competitor.
Musk’s AI portfolio is “unraveling” in part because computing monetization trading signals to public market buyers that the underlying product cannot generate enough demand to absorb the capacity Musk built for it.
SpaceX’s roadshow, which begins within the next two weeks, will be the first formal test of whether institutional buyers are willing to back AI’s top-line projection in the face of the federal consumer stagnation and decline data that Reuters has now presented.
The biggest fortnight in Musk’s portfolio has complicated the timing. xAI $420 Tax Refund Commitment to Employees the promised payment window has passed, and Delaware court procedural rulings against him in the OpenAI litigation They have continued to accumulate.
SpaceX itself, according to available reports, has not publicly addressed the Reuters article. The prospectus doesn’t break out Grok-specific revenue from the broader xAI line, leaving institutional buyers to interpret the stagnation of federal adoption against the headline AI line growth figure.
The next visible test point will be the S-1 amendment expected before the tour launches, where any updated disclosure of Grok’s adoption would be the first formal sign of whether xAI is willing to put numbers behind the federal and consumer lawsuit outlook Reuters has released.
