Jefferies Equity Research predicts significant increases in memory prices over the next few quarters, with no substantial relief expected before 2028.
The company expects memory prices to increase by 40 to 50 percent in the third quarter of 2026, followed by a further increase of 30 to 40 percent in the fourth quarter.
The upward pressure is then expected to continue with year-on-year increases of 40 to 45 percent in 2027. A recovery is expected in 2028, but only with limited price reductions of around 15 to 20 percent.
What Jefferies predicts and what is driving the memory price crisis
The Jefferies forecast features some of the most cautious memory price predictions to date. The figures, reported by Wccftech, describe the following trajectory:
- Third quarter of 2026, a price increase of 40 to 50 percent,
- In the fourth quarter of 2026, a further increase of 30 to 40 percent, and then a year-on-year increase of 40 to 45 percent in 2027.
- By 2028, prices are expected to recover modestly, increasing by 15 to 20 percent as production capacity expands.
- If these projections are accurate, a memory module that costs $100 today could exceed $200 by the end of 2027.
The pressure on memory prices is driven by demand from AI data centers, where chipmakers are prioritizing high-margin orders for AI infrastructure over mainstream consumer DRAM and NAND.
This change differs from typical memory market cycles, which are often influenced by supply constraints. Currently, the demand-driven situation means hyperscalers are making long-term commitments that tie up production capacity that could otherwise be available to the consumer market.
Micron recently confirmed $22 billion in long-term commitments from its customers, and other memory makers such as Samsung and SK Hynix are in similar positions.
Why Chinese memory hasn’t helped and how consumer devices are being affected
Former Samsung boss Kyung-Hyeon Kye once predicted that the crisis could end sooner thanks to increased manufacturing capacity by Chinese producers.
However, reports suggest that Chinese memory chips from manufacturers like CXMT are not selling at significant discounts. Industry analysts say they have been told by suppliers that CXMT’s prices are comparable to those of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, eliminating expected price relief due to Chinese expansion.
This pressure on memory prices is already affecting consumer prices in several product categories:
- Apple increased the prices of its iPad, Mac, HomePod and Apple TV last week, with the MacBook Neo increasing from $599 to $699.
- Microsoft announced that it will increase the prices of the Xbox Series S and Series X by at least $100 starting August 1.
- Sony has also increased prices for the PS5, with the 2TB PS5 Pro now priced at $899.
- Valve introduced the Steam Machine at $1,049, about $300 above its original price target.
- Looking ahead, smartphone shipments are expected to fall 15 percent in 2026 due to higher prices and weaker demand.
- The PC market is expected to decline by 11.3 percent.
If Jefferies’ forecasts are correct, pressure on consumer device prices will continue to intensify through 2027 rather than ease.
What users should do as memory prices continue to rise
Users planning major hardware purchases should consider purchasing sooner rather than later, as further price increases are expected during the third and fourth quarters.
It may also be worth looking into refurbished or used devices, which currently maintain their prices but could see increases as the secondary market changes.
Additionally, sticking with current devices longer aligns with broader trends of long replacement cycles.
When purchasing memory and storage, carefully reviewing your requirements can help avoid the impact of price increases, especially since smaller configurations can delay or reduce those increases.
For PC manufacturers, RAM and SSD upgrades are the components most directly affected. Purchasing memory before the third quarter could result in significant savings.
Jefferies’ forecast is in line with recent signals from hardware manufacturers. Microsoft has reported that it now pays two and a half times more for memory than it did at the end of last year and expects costs to double again by the end of 2027.
Apple has also noted that it has never experienced such rapid increases in component prices. Recently, the Steam Deck received a 50% price increase, partly due to memory costs.
The memory crisis is shaping up to be one of the biggest consumer tech stories of 2026. Whether Jefferies’ projections turn out to be accurate will largely depend on how quickly demand for AI infrastructure stabilizes and whether new manufacturing capacity can be brought online.
For now, users should expect continued upward pressure on device prices until at least the end of 2027.
