The Mandalorian and Grogu is the first star wars film that will hit the big screen in almost seven years. Excitement and anticipation should be through the roof. However, the first estimates of its first weekend don’t show that, from a certain point of view.
Just a few weeks away from its release on May 22, Deadline information The Mandalorian and Grogu It is currently looking for an $80 million-plus opening over the four-day Memorial Day weekend. In terms of modern star wars movies, that would put it slightly below (or about equal) 2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened with $84 million in its opening weekend. And of course, it’s a far cry from almost all the other recent star wars films, which opened to $248 million, $155 million, $220 million, and $177 million from 2015 to 2019, respectively.
However, more than eighty million would put The Mandalorian and Grogu before Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace and Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones, which opened with around $65 and $80 million, respectively. But of course, those movies were released decades ago and those numbers aren’t adjusted for inflation. (Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith opened with over $108 million, by the way.) And it’s certainly a lot better than the 2008 animated film, Star Wars: The Clone Warswhich opened with only 14 million dollars.
However, there are obviously many factors at play here. The first is the main marketing for The Mandalorian and Grogu it’s just beginning. There will soon be interviews, clips, viral videos and much more. In addition, May 4 is approaching, which will feature all kinds of star wars excitement in all media, as well as an event at the cinema to promote the film. All of that should get more people interested and going to the theaters for that opening weekend. Plus, most people haven’t seen the movie yet, so if the early reviews and word of mouth are solid, that could really help. (Or, potentially, the opposite).
Also, while comparing the movie to other big screen movies star wars releases, it’s really not the fairest comparison. The Mandalorian and Grogu is primarily based on a Disney+ TV show, so it doesn’t have the same comparisons in terms of box office. In fact, Deadline brings it closer to films like the 2008 one. High School Musical 3: Senior Year, that it was an adaptation of a television property (it opened with $42 million); JJ Abrams 2009 trip to the stars, which was a similar franchise return after a long hiatus (opening with around $75 million); and the fast and furious split, Hobbs and Shawwhich opened with about 60 million dollars. They are all adjacent to major franchises, but are not the focus of that major franchise.
Or maybe it’s just a Hollywood trade trying to make over $80 million dollars. star wars The opening seems good.
However, often these early estimates end up on the low side, so we imagine those earlier rumors of around $100 million will probably be more true once the film is in theaters. But it will be fascinating to see how close, or if, star wars‘ return to the big screen can compete with its predecessors. It’s also worth wondering if Disney and Lucasfilm are going to be happy with a premiere like this or if they were expecting something much bigger. We’ll know in a few weeks.
Want more io9 news? See when to expect the latest Wonder, star warsand trip to the stars releases, what’s next for the DC Universe in film and televisionand everything you need to know about the future of doctor who.
