If there was ever a golden age of cheap memory and storage, I’m sorry to tell you it’s over.
He 2TB NVMe SSD you bought early last year? Now it costs three times what you paid. The 32 GB DDR5 RAM kit that was $90 last summer? Now it’s somewhere between $300 and $500if you can find it for sale.
He effects of the AMR crisis are being felt in technology markets around the world. Xbox just announced this week another console price increase. Apple announced that it is increasing the prices of its MacBooks. Microsoft recently raised the prices of its Surface PC. He Steam Machine debuts at $1,049. I could go on and on.
The worst part about this whole RAMpocalypse? Nobody really knows when it will end.
Why do memory and storage prices continue to rise?
So what happened? AI happened. The way the global memory market is set up depends on three big companies supplying everyone else with DRAM for consumer memory and storage.
Samsung, SK hynixand Micron Early on in the AI boom they realized they could make a lot more money by moving away from consumer memory and toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI data centers.
The profit margins are huge on the other side, and it really doesn’t surprise me that these massive corporations have made the switch, as companies like microsoft, Googleand Amazon Basically, they have offered blank checks to buy as much memory as possible.
The consequences of these measures by the three big memory manufacturers, of course, are a strangulation of the consumer memory market. And this is not a typical supply crisis like we have seen in the past that can be remedied by launching a new manufacturing plant.
This time, the memory crisis is a reallocation of the world’s DRAM manufacturing capabilities and there is no real end in sight.
I don’t think RAM and SSD prices will drop anytime soon
I don’t expect technology prices to drop anytime soon, and you don’t need to take my word for it.
Counterpoint research confirmed in February that memory prices increased in First quarter of 2026 by 80% to 90% compared to Fourth quarter of 2025. At the end of last year, Kingston stated that he had seen a 246% increase in NAND wafer prices compared to early 2025, the highest in the company’s 29-year history.
In February 2026, Gartner published its findings suggesting that by the end of 2026, DRAM and SSD prices could increase by 130% compared to 2025, which could increase PC prices by 17%. I think we’re already seeing that estimate come into play, with this same study predicting that global PC shipments could fall by 10.4% this year.
By the end of 2026, DRAM and SSD prices could increase by 130% compared to 2025, which could increase PC prices by 17%.
It gets worse. Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron noted earlier this year that the AMR crisis would continue beyond 2026. This week, Micron announced that most of its DRAM has been purchased through long-term contracts through 2030and that it is almost certain that the crisis will not end.
SK hynix, another of the big three DRAM players, stated in 2025 that its HBM, DRAM and NAND manufacturing capacity is exhausted through 2026.
Okay, I know that’s a lot of numbers, but I’m trying to make the point: the RAM and SSD crisis isn’t likely to end in 2026. It probably won’t end in 2027 either. 2028 might be our lucky year, but that’s a relatively distant future and harder to predict.
The problem is compounded by the fact that it takes a long time to create new manufacturing plants, not to mention the billions of dollars required to get the project off the ground.
Micron is building a fabulous new plant in Idahofor example, but it’s not likely to start producing anything significant until the end of 2027. Please note that this is the same company as eliminated its entire consumer RAM and SSD portfolio in 2025 focus on AI customers.
Meanwhile, Samsung and SK hynix are focusing on increasing production at their existing plants, as the new plants will not be ready until late 2020s.
Most analyst forecasts I’ve read rightly point to some relief occurring no sooner than the end of 2027, and I’m not talking about 2024-era prices. If those prices ever return, it will be at the end of a long, slow decline as the market stabilizes.
If memory prices go down, will PC prices go down too?
I certainly enjoy entertaining more conspiratorial ideas, and the one question I don’t think enough people are asking is about PC prices. after Memory and storage markets return to normal.
Will affected laptops, PC components, consoles, tablets, and other tech products drop in price once the RAM and storage markets return to normal?
If I’m an optimist, then yes, I think a correction in component costs would also lead to a correction in PC and console prices.
If I’m an optimist, then yes, I think a correction in component costs would also lead to a correction in PC and console prices. History suggests that this is not something out of the ordinary. There was a memory and storage glut in 2023 and 2024, and I remember consumer prices softening a bit.
However, I don’t think 2026/2027/2028 will be at all the same as previous years. PC makers expect to see a big hit to global PC shipments in 2026. As mentioned, Gartner predicts a 10.4% decline. CID investigation points to a 11.3% decline.
The problem is that by raising prices for consumers, the PC market is still expected to grow by hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming years.
This is what I find particularly terrifying. If sales volume falls but profits continue to grow, is there really any financial pressure causing PC makers to lower prices?
I don’t think most PC makers care about entry-level buyers being priced out of the market when enthusiasts and enterprise customers continue to throw money their way. Why bother with discounted, low-margin laptops?
Gartner believes that less than $500 The laptop market will disappear completely in 2028and I would say that we are already on the right path. Will that market recover when RAM and SSD prices return to normal? It’s hard to say.
I can reference GPU price increases from a few years ago during the cryptocurrency boom and pandemic shortages. GPU prices rose, the market stabilized, and GPU prices fell again. But they didn’t back down until the end, resetting to a higher baseline than before.
Consumers had become accustomed to paying inflated GPU prices and there was really no incentive to lower prices to 2019 levels. I think the same logic applies to the PC market.
The Chinese wild card could save us all
Competition is probably the only thing that can save us, barring a collapse of the AI boom and a burst of the market bubble.
Samsung, SK hynix and Micron currently control approximately 90% of global DRAM production, making it tremendously easy to coordinate pricing. I’m not saying it’s explicit collusion, but it’s certainly something.
Samsung, SK hynix and Micron currently control around 90% of global DRAM production, making it tremendously easy to coordinate pricing.
The best opportunity to break this oligopoly comes from China. Companies like YMTC and CXMT have been steadily increasing their share of the NAND market with new production and new factories.
If these competitors can actually increase production and get their products to international buyers, I don’t see how that wouldn’t disrupt the oligopoly. It’s not exactly easy for Chinese manufacturers, however, as issues with exports, access to advanced equipment and geopolitical concerns are obstacles they must overcome.
What does this mean for you and your next PC?
Gartner expects the lifespan of PCs for everyday consumers to increase by 20% for the end of this year. The cheap PC upgrade cycle has pretty much come to an end.
When new DRAM factories come online, I hope they serve AI customers first. Consumers will receive leftovers, just as they currently do. Chinese DRAM manufacturers could enter the international market and force prices down, but I doubt it enough to have a serious impact.
If you’re waiting for the RAM crisis to be over before you buy your next device, I have bad news. The most optimistic predictions place easing as soon as end of 2027 either 2028while the most pessimistic delay the dates 2030.
If you need a new PC now, I recommend buying one that will last for many years. What some thought was a brief blip on the PC market graph has serious staying power. What it will look like, if it ever returns to normal, is anyone’s guess.
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