Apple executives reportedly once expected the iPhone to replace by smart glasses by 2029, with Eddy Cue later updating this prediction until 2035.
However, a former ardent supporter of this idea has completely changed his mind and now believes that we will still be using smartphones in 20 years…
Smart glasses that replace smartphones
Neal Stephenson first coined the term “metaverse” in his novel. snow crashand later worked as chief futurist at Magic Leap. snow crash described virtual reality goggles and essentially described the types of three-dimensional virtual worlds that would be created by Meta and others.
Stevenson then went on to argue that smart glasses were the future, saying it was “obvious” they would replace smartphones within 20 years. Apple also seems to share this opinion: a report on an internal company presentation in 2019 saying:
In the long term, Apple believes this type of device will eventually replace smartphones, and executives told the team this will happen “in about a decade.”
Senior Vice President Eddy Cue seemed to echo this sentiment. only last yearalthough he still considered that it was ten years away from then.
“You might not need an iPhone in 10 years, as crazy as that sounds,” he said. “The only way to have true competition is when technological changes occur. Technological changes create these opportunities.
Although it should be noted that he was using this argument in an antitrust hearing to suggest that nothing could be taken for granted, including the continued success of the iPhone.
Stephenson no longer believes in this future
The writer says Now he has completely changed his mind. Now he says that in 20 years we will still be using smartphones and that wearable devices for the face are not the future he once believed in.
Reader, I have changed my mind. Twenty years from now, everyone will still be looking at portable rectangles. Or at least that’s how it is if the only alternative is to wear things on your face (…)
One possible solution is to continue refining and miniaturizing the devices to the point where they look like glasses. However, this has the unintended side effect of making these things seem sinister. It happened with Google Glass, which instantly spawned the term “glasshole,” and it has happened again with Meta’s product that looks like regular glasses, albeit with heavy frames.
9to5Mac’s opinion
I’m not sure the devices have no role, but I certainly agree that they won’t replace smartphones.
In 2019I said that Apple Glasses would potentially replace the Apple Watch instead of the iPhone. I argued that while they might make sense for those who already wear glasses, I couldn’t see the rest of us wearing them all day.
I could never imagine wearing glasses full time, not even dumb or smart. Are we really going to be in a position where every person who now owns an iPhone will be wearing glasses? And if we’re not going to use them all the time, does it make more sense to reach into our pocket for a pair of Apple glasses than to reach for our phone?
I said I could see certain apps for the device, but not as a replacement for a smartphone.
Last andear In response to Cue’s comments, I pointed out that we still use foldable laptops four decades after they were first seen in 1984, for the simple reason that the form factor works. I suggested the same would be true for the smartphone.
I suspect the smartphone is very similar. Sure, it will hit Apple’s goal of that single slab of glass, and yes, some people will opt for foldable models, but the basic idea of a flat, pocket-sized device with a touchscreen as the primary means of interaction has survived for 18 years so far, and I think there’s a good chance it will still be that way in 23 years. The design works.
What is your opinion? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
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