NASA assessed a 1 in 276 chance of crew loss on the first astronaut flight aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon in 2020. Boeing Starliner In 2024, the chance was 1 in 295. You wouldn’t be wrong to question those numbers. given the proven performance of Dragon and Starliner.
This graphic from NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance describes the agency’s process for conducting probabilistic risk assessments.
Credit: NASA
This graphic from NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance describes the agency’s process for conducting probabilistic risk assessments.
Credit: NASA
So what do the Artemis II astronauts think of all this?
Mission commander Reid Wiseman said crew members were trying to prepare their families “honestly and openly” for the dangers of a circumlunar flight.
“I went for a walk with my kids and told them, ‘This is where the will is, this is where the trust documents are, and if something happens to me, this is what will happen to you,’” Wiseman said. “That’s part of this life. In fact, I wish more people in everyday life would talk to their families that way because you never know what the next day will bring.”
Any sailor knows that you can’t stay in port forever. Test pilots and astronauts make a living by taking calculated risks.
“When you see numbers like Mach 39 on the inlet, when you see numbers like 38,000 miles, 250,000 miles and 5 or 6 million pounds on the pad, those are just crazy numbers,” Wiseman said. “These numbers you don’t even understand. There’s a risk in that. We don’t know what we don’t know right now, so we’ll learn all that (on the mission).
Despite the unknown, Wiseman is ready: “For me, I really feel completely 100 percent accepted. When I walk into Orion, it’s like crawling into my bed, and I’ll feel warm and tucked in.”
The formal risk matrix for Artemis II is similar to that of Artemis I, with MMOD again at the top of the list. Matt Ramsey, NASA’s Artemis II mission manager, told Ars in January that the Orion spacecraft’s life support and environmental control system, which did not fly at full capacity on Artemis I, is the second biggest risk to Artemis II. “Those two are my biggest concerns,” said Ramsey, who has worked at NASA since 2002.
